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Number Crunching Yesterday
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:04 PM
Just some stuff I did yesterday in case anyone is interested.

Just for fun, I decided to do a bit of election theorycrafting on my own, based on trusted polls, in an attempt to determine whether Obama really will win tomorrow, based solely on the numbers.

If you assume that each candidate will win the states that they lead by 10 or more points in polls, Obama gets 238 EVs, while McCain gets 118 EVs, with 182 toss-up EVs. If you assume that each candidate will win states that they lead by 8 or more points in polls, Obama gets 264 EVs, while McCain gets 132 EVs, with 142 toss-up EVs.

In the second scenario, those 142 toss-up EVs are from 12 states. 6 of those favor McCain, and 6 of those favor Obama. The ones that favor McCain are below:

Edited by !King_Amazon! 
Just so you know, this data was all taken from www.electoral-vote.com so this data is based on the polls that they use, which you can find by visiting their website. They only use trusted, reliable polls, so this isn't just data that was pulled out of some Obama lover's ass.


Code:
STATE             LEAD        EVs

Missouri          1           11

North Dakota      1           3

Indiana           2           11

Arizona           4           10

Georgia           4           15

Montana           4           3

TOTAL                         53




Now, the ones that favor Obama:



Code:
STATE             LEAD        EVs

Colorado          7           9

Nevada            6           5

Ohio              5           20

Virginia          5           13

Florida           4           27

North Carolina    2           15

TOTAL                         89


270 EVs is a win, and with the assumption that the candidates will both win all states that they are more than 8 points ahead in, Obama only needs 6 more to win, while McCain needs 138 more. All of the states listed above add up to 142 EVs. That means, basically, that McCain would pretty much have to win all of the states above to win, including the ones that Obama has a decent lead in (such as Colorado, with his 7 point lead). If Obama manages to at LEAST get the state with his best lead, Colorado, he wins, no matter how many of the rest McCain wins.

Pretty much, throw a dart at a dart board, if you hit the dart board, the wall, the ceiling, or the floor, Obama wins. If you hit a platypus or the moon, McCain wins.

Last edited by !King_Amazon!; 2008-11-04 at 03:07 PM.
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:17 PM in reply to !King_Amazon!'s post "Number Crunching Yesterday"
If you are an Obama supporter, you should never just assume he is going to win. That assumption spreads around the entire nation, and people will become less likely to vote.














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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:27 PM in reply to D3V's post starting "If you are an Obama supporter, you..."
I still plan on voting. I don't see the logic behind not voting because I think he'll win anyway. If someone will decide not to vote because it looks like he'll win, they deserve a McCain presidency anyway.
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:27 PM in reply to !King_Amazon!'s post starting "I still plan on voting. I don't see..."
Yes, but ignorance is bliss and abundant in America, and that way of thinking i'm sure of, applies to plenty of younger voters discouraged by 2-hour lines just to "vote".

7:00 pm is almost here!














Quote:
!King_Amazon!: I talked to him while he was getting raped
[quote][16:04] jamer123: GRRR firefox just like quit on me now on internet exploder[quote]
...
[quote=!King_Amazon!]notices he's 3 inches shorter than her son and he's circumcised [quote]
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D3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidences
 
 
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:35 PM in reply to D3V's post starting "Yes, but ignorance is bliss and..."
Those voters need to DIAF then. Assholes.
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:35 PM in reply to D3V's post starting "Yes, but ignorance is bliss and..."
I wanted to vote this election, it was the first I was actually kind of into. Found out yesterday I wasnt registered where as I thought I was, so I won't be voting this year, Tutti is though.. I'ma hear about the lines when she finally gets home watch.
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:49 PM in reply to Kazilla's post starting "I wanted to vote this election, it was..."
Kazilla said: [Goto]
I wanted to vote this election, it was the first I was actually kind of into. Found out yesterday I wasnt registered where as I thought I was, so I won't be voting this year, Tutti is though.. I'ma hear about the lines when she finally gets home watch.
You could still go vote, go now. Get a provisional ballot, and vote. They will figure out your registration status afterwards, or atleast they should've told you where or what precinct to go to. You still have a few hours to go vote, go do it.














Quote:
!King_Amazon!: I talked to him while he was getting raped
[quote][16:04] jamer123: GRRR firefox just like quit on me now on internet exploder[quote]
...
[quote=!King_Amazon!]notices he's 3 inches shorter than her son and he's circumcised [quote]
Old
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D3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidencesD3V is convinced there are no coincidences, only the illusion of coincidences
 
 
D3V
 



 
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:50 PM in reply to D3V's post starting "You could still go vote, go now. Get a..."
D3V said: [Goto]
You could still go vote, go now. Get a provisional ballot, and vote. They will figure out your registration status afterwards, or atleast they should've told you where or what precinct to go to. You still have a few hours to go vote, go do it.
THIS.

go now
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Posted 2008-11-04, 03:55 PM in reply to !King_Amazon!'s post starting "THIS. go now"
go vote pud!














Quote:
!King_Amazon!: I talked to him while he was getting raped
[quote][16:04] jamer123: GRRR firefox just like quit on me now on internet exploder[quote]
...
[quote=!King_Amazon!]notices he's 3 inches shorter than her son and he's circumcised [quote]
Old
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