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OMG how much longer will we have to wait!!!
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Posted 2008-10-24, 10:17 AM
Basically this is just a rant...........

How long till we can play the game??
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Posted 2008-10-24, 10:23 AM in reply to Kitten's post "OMG how much longer will we have to..."
That was a really short rant.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 10:33 AM in reply to Kitten's post "OMG how much longer will we have to..."
There are a couple speculation release dates. Check the videogame forum for details.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 10:44 AM in reply to Kazilla's post starting "There are a couple speculation release..."
Hmmm... I have looked on the Blizz website and it just advises that it will be released in due course.

Stop teasing me blizzard release the damn game.

I've just seen that they have added the Wizard class, looks good I can't wait to see what other classes they bring out in D3.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 10:48 AM in reply to Kitten's post starting "Hmmm... I have looked on the Blizz..."
Years.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 12:21 PM in reply to -Spector-'s post starting "Years."
Agreed. They make it look pretty close to completion to keep the hype up.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 03:55 PM in reply to -Spector-'s post starting "Years."
I made a few estimates based on earlier, major releases by Blizzard (or more specifically, the temporal differences between the announcement dates and the release dates of StarCraft, Diablo II, Warcraft III and World of Warcraft). The data collection and processing took longer than expected, but it was fun.

StarCraft was announced on E3 in 1996, between May 16 and May 18 [1][2]. Back then, it used the same engine as Warcraft II and looked rather jolly. After complaints from fans, StarCraft (including its engine, graphics and sound effects) were recreated, and the end product was StarCraft 1.00, which was released on March 31, 1998 for Windows, across the world[3].

This signifies that it took 682-684 days from the announcement of StarCraft to the release of the game. I have not been able to find any specific information about which day StarCraft was announced on the 1996 E3 event.

Subsequently, this game called Diablo II ended up on the market. Actually, it was first announced at the ECTS between September 7 and September 9[4][5], and was released on June 30, 2000[6]. Wikipedia claims that the release date was June 29, 2000 for both the NA and EU versions of the game.

Based on the IGN data, we can extrapolate that the announcement-to-release period of Diablo II was 1023-1025 days, with a data inconsistency of three days, alike what was seen earlier for StarCraft.

For some reason, Blizzard then figured it was a good idea to announce Warcraft III, which I consider a malodorous bastard child of its progenitors; commonly a cause for self-subjection to animosity from nerds, thus disallowing me to partake in further social endeavors with them (and consequently, anyone at all for that matter). Anyway, it originally debuted on the ETCS in 1999[7][8] between September 5 and September 7 (great) in 1999. It was released on July 3, 2002 in the U.S., and two days later in Europe.[9][10]

In other words, based on the IGN data for the U.S. version of the game, Warcraft III was released 1030-1032 days after it was announced.

You know what followed, don't you? Aside from the annoying expansion packs, that is. Indeed, ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE and their uncle has played it at this point. Announced on September 2, 2001[11] and released on November 22, 2004[12], World of Warcraft was pretty good and stuff.

If you have been paying close attention, you will have noticed that the announcement-to-release phases have grown longer for every project listed (in chronologic order) so far. At 1177 days, World of Warcraft follows this trend.

!

Then there's Diablo III. Announced on June 28, 2008[13], fans have somehow managed to become acutely bereft prior to its release. So, when exactly will Diablo III be handed to the sheeple for plenty o'coin? It is very probable that no-one knows for certain, and it is certainly certain that Blizzard has not announced a release date yet. However, based on the given data, we may infer a probabilistic time frame for release date of Diablo III.

For instance, one of the simpler models involves calculation of the average announcement-to-release phases for the aforementioned projects:

(((682+684)/2 + (1023+1025)/2 + (1030+1032)/2 + 1177)/4) days = 978.75 days.

This is equivalent to 2 years, 8 months and 6 days ± 2 days, depending on whether or not leap years are involved, and what part of the year the project was started on. Based on the announcement date of Diablo III (June 28, 2008), we can deduce that Diablo III will be released between March 1, 2011 and March 5, 2011.

Assuming the shortest development phase for any of the aforementioned projects (682 days), we can derive that this is equivalent to 1 year, 10 months and 13 days ± 2 days using similar rules to those found in the last paragraph. Using this model, Diablo III will be released between May 9, 2010 and May 13, 2010. While optimistic, it defies the trend of continually lengthening development cycles of Blizzard's projects (which is seen amongst other game developers as well).

With the longest (and most recent) development cycle of any of the aforementioned, major Blizzard projects taken into account (1177 days for World of Warcraft, equivalent to 3 years, 2 months and 23 days ± 2 days), a possible release date between September 16, 2011 and September 20, 2011 is revealed. This may be considered a reasonable estimate, but the model still appears too simplistic and static to be satisfactory.

To procure a higher degree of satisfaction, I decided to estimate the result of the progressively lengthening development cycles (using the four given two-dimensional data points) through linear regression and exponential regression. (Note that the usage of 4544 will correspond to the amount of days that have passed since the release of StarCraft on March 31, 1998, to today, October 24, 2008.)

Starcraft announcement: 0 (days since StarCraft announcement date (duh)); ((682 + 684) / 2 = 683 day announcement-release phase)

Diablo II announcement: 4544 - 4065 = 479 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); ((1023 + 1025) / 2 = 1024 day announcement-release phase (based on IGN data)

Warcraft III announcement: 4544 - 3337 = 1207 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); ((1030 + 1032) / 2 = 1031 day announcement-release phase)

World of Warcraft announcement: 4544 - 2609 = 1935 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); (1177 day announcement-release phase)


Linear regression analysis gives:

y(t) = 0.2175755907t + 781.7896965
  • y is the length of the development phase (in days).
  • t is the amount of time since the release of StarCraft (in days).


By using the one-dimensional information (the announcement date) from the Diablo III data point, it can be concluded that Diablo III was announced 4426 (4544 - 118 = 4426) days after StarCraft announcement date. By utilizing this information in the first-degree polynominal function derived from linear regression analysis, we see that:


y(4426) = 0.2175755907*4426 + 781.7896965 = 1744.77926


If you're still with me, you may have figured out that a 1745-day development cycle (or 4 years, 9 months and 12 days ± 2 days) would potentially be a bad thing, as it implies that Diablo III may not be released until a period between April 6, 2013 and April 10, 2013.


Exponential regression analysis:

Governing the fact that 2491 days (6 years, 9 months and 28 days ± 2 days) passed between the World of Warcraft and Diablo III announcements, it may be argued that linear regression analysis is inadequate to compensate for the temporal gap and the few data points available. Exponential regression analysis ameliorates these salient gaps in part.

Using the aforementioned two-dimensional data points, we get:


y(t) = 800.7774894e^(2.135821658t*(10^-4))


By inserting the one-dimensional information (the announcement date) from the Diablo III data point into the exponential function, we see that:


y(4426) = 800.7774894e^(2.135821658*4426*(10^-4)) = 2060.89943


Thus, we can conclude, with one of the best regression analysis tools available, that Diablo III will likely be released 2061 days (5 years, 7 months and 24 days) after it was initially announced, between February 16, 2014 and February 20, 2014.

ENJOY THE WAIT!

Think about it. Most game development projects in the 70's involved individual game developers or smaller teams, whereas the amount of game developers per project has increased in quantity ever since. Most of the major game development studios currently have at least a hundred artists, programmers and game designers working on a single game to meet the deadlines. These trends are likely to continue, to keep up with the still-growing production times of increasingly complex projects.


As for those of you who think we can't predict the future, we most certainly can, on larger scales.

"One way to think about the patterns in information technology is to look at science, where we see other examples of remarkably predictable effects resulting from the interaction of inherently unpredictable phenomena. The laws of thermodynamics provide an example. The path of each molecule in a gas is modeled as a random walk. Yet the properties of the overall gas, made up of many chaotically interacting particles, is predictable to a high degree of precision. Technology evolution is, similarly, a chaotic system with remarkably predictable properties." - Raymond Kurzweil

Also, stop asking me how much longer you'll have to wait.
"Stephen Wolfram is the creator of Mathematica and is widely regarded as the most important innovator in scientific and technical computing today." - Stephen Wolfram

Last edited by Chruser; 2008-10-24 at 04:48 PM.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:12 PM in reply to Chruser's post starting "I made a few estimates based on..."
You're not from this planet are you.. I feel unworthy posting on your forums.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:38 PM in reply to Chruser's post starting "I made a few estimates based on..."
lol wow, Mars 1st, Mars 5th = March?
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:40 PM in reply to -Spector-'s post starting "lol wow, Mars 1st, Mars 5th = March?"
Indeed; nice catch. PROBLEM: SOLVED.

I need to proofread my rants before I post them. I fixed some other flaws, too.
"Stephen Wolfram is the creator of Mathematica and is widely regarded as the most important innovator in scientific and technical computing today." - Stephen Wolfram
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:46 PM in reply to Chruser's post starting "Indeed; nice catch. PROBLEM: SOLVED. ..."
You should post this on the Official Diablo III forums or whatever forums diablo3.net changed too after Blizz bought them out.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:49 PM in reply to -Spector-'s post starting "You should post this on the Official..."
diii.net i think
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:57 PM in reply to Kazilla's post starting "diii.net i think"
You should bring them here instead. Or Google will.

Anyway, I should probably attach some plotted images to decrease the risk of tl;dr.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:57 PM in reply to Chruser's post starting "I made a few estimates based on..."
Chruser said: [Goto]
I made a few estimates based on earlier, major releases by Blizzard (or more specifically, the temporal differences between the announcement dates and the release dates of StarCraft, Diablo II, Warcraft III and World of Warcraft). The data collection and processing took longer than expected, but it was fun.

StarCraft was announced on E3 in 1996, between May 16 and May 18 [1][2]. Back then, it used the same engine as Warcraft II and looked rather jolly. After complaints from fans, StarCraft (including its engine, graphics and sound effects) were recreated, and the end product was StarCraft 1.00, which was released on March 31, 1998 for Windows, across the world[3].

This signifies that it took 682-684 days from the announcement of StarCraft to the release of the game. I have not been able to find any specific information about which day StarCraft was announced on the 1996 E3 event.

Subsequently, this game called Diablo II ended up on the market. Actually, it was first announced at the ECTS between September 7 and September 9[4][5], and was released on June 30, 2000[6]. Wikipedia claims that the release date was June 29, 2000 for both the NA and EU versions of the game.

Based on the IGN data, we can extrapolate that the announcement-to-release period of Diablo II was 1023-1025 days, with a data inconsistency of three days, alike what was seen earlier for StarCraft.

For some reason, Blizzard then figured it was a good idea to announce Warcraft III, which I consider a malodorous bastard child of its progenitors; commonly a cause for self-subjection to animosity from nerds, thus disallowing me to partake in further social endeavors with them (and consequently, anyone at all for that matter). Anyway, it originally debuted on the ETCS in 1999[7][8] between September 5 and September 7 (great) in 1999. It was released on July 3, 2002 in the U.S., and two days later in Europe.[9][10]

In other words, based on the IGN data for the U.S. version of the game, Warcraft III was released 1030-1032 days after it was announced.

You know what followed, don't you? Aside from the annoying expansion packs, that is. Indeed, ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE and their uncle has played it at this point. Announced on September 2, 2001[11] and released on November 22, 2004[12], World of Warcraft was pretty good and stuff.

If you have been paying close attention, you will have noticed that the announcement-to-release phases have grown longer for every project listed (in chronologic order) so far. At 1177 days, World of Warcraft follows this trend.

!

Then there's Diablo III. Announced on June 28, 2008[13], fans have somehow managed to become acutely bereft prior to its release. So, when exactly will Diablo III be handed to the sheeple for plenty o'coin? It is very probable that no-one knows for certain, and it is certainly certain that Blizzard has not announced a release date yet. However, based on the given data, we may infer a probabilistic time frame for release date of Diablo III.

For instance, one of the simpler models involves calculation of the average announcement-to-release phases for the aforementioned projects:

(((682+684)/2 + (1023+1025)/2 + (1030+1032)/2 + 1177)/4) days = 978.75 days.

This is equivalent to 2 years, 8 months and 6 days ± 2 days, depending on whether or not leap years are involved, and what part of the year the project was started on. Based on the announcement date of Diablo III (June 28, 2008), we can deduce that Diablo III will be released between March 1, 2011 and March 5, 2011.

Assuming the shortest development phase for any of the aforementioned projects (682 days), we can derive that this is equivalent to 1 year, 10 months and 13 days ± 2 days using similar rules to those found in the last paragraph. Using this model, Diablo III will be released between May 9, 2010 and May 13, 2010. While optimistic, it defies the trend of continually lengthening development cycles of Blizzard's projects (which is seen amongst other game developers as well).

With the longest (and most recent) development cycle of any of the aforementioned, major Blizzard projects taken into account (1177 days for World of Warcraft, equivalent to 3 years, 2 months and 23 days ± 2 days), a possible release date between September 16, 2011 and September 20, 2011 is revealed. This may be considered a reasonable estimate, but the model still appears too simplistic and static to be satisfactory.

To procure a higher degree of satisfaction, I decided to estimate the result of the progressively lengthening development cycles (using the four given two-dimensional data points) through linear regression and exponential regression. (Note that the usage of 4544 will correspond to the amount of days that have passed since the release of StarCraft on March 31, 1998, to today, October 24, 2008.)

Starcraft announcement: 0 (days since StarCraft announcement date (duh)); ((682 + 684) / 2 = 683 day announcement-release phase)

Diablo II announcement: 4544 - 4065 = 479 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); ((1023 + 1025) / 2 = 1024 day announcement-release phase (based on IGN data)

Warcraft III announcement: 4544 - 3337 = 1207 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); ((1030 + 1032) / 2 = 1031 day announcement-release phase)

World of Warcraft announcement: 4544 - 2609 = 1935 (days after the StarCraft announcement date); (1177 day announcement-release phase)


Linear regression analysis gives:

y(t) = 0.2175755907t + 781.7896965
  • y is the length of the development phase (in days).
  • t is the amount of time since the release of StarCraft (in days).


By using the one-dimensional information (the announcement date) from the Diablo III data point, it can be concluded that Diablo III was announced 4426 (4544 - 118 = 4426) days after StarCraft announcement date. By utilizing this information in the first-degree polynominal function derived from linear regression analysis, we see that:


y(4426) = 0.2175755907*4426 + 781.7896965 = 1744.77926


If you're still with me, you may have figured out that a 1745-day development cycle (or 4 years, 9 months and 12 days ± 2 days) would potentially be a bad thing, as it implies that Diablo III may not be released until a period between April 6, 2013 and April 10, 2013.


Exponential regression analysis:

Governing the fact that 2491 days (6 years, 9 months and 28 days ± 2 days) passed between the World of Warcraft and Diablo III announcements, it may be argued that linear regression analysis is inadequate to compensate for the temporal gap and the few data points available. Exponential regression analysis ameliorates these salient gaps in part.

Using the aforementioned two-dimensional data points, we get:


y(t) = 800.7774894e^(2.135821658t*(10^-4))


By inserting the one-dimensional information (the announcement date) from the Diablo III data point into the exponential function, we see that:


y(4426) = 800.7774894e^(2.135821658*4426*(10^-4)) = 2060.89943


Thus, we can conclude, with one of the best regression analysis tools available, that Diablo III will likely be released 2061 days (5 years, 7 months and 24 days) after it was initially announced, between February 16, 2014 and February 20, 2014.

ENJOY THE WAIT!

Think about it. Most game development projects in the 70's involved individual game developers or smaller teams, whereas the amount of game developers per project has increased in quantity ever since. Most of the major game development studios currently have at least a hundred artists, programmers and game designers working on a single game to meet the deadlines. These trends are likely to continue, to keep up with the still-growing production times of increasingly complex projects.


As for those of you who think we can't predict the future, we most certainly can, on larger scales.

"One way to think about the patterns in information technology is to look at science, where we see other examples of remarkably predictable effects resulting from the interaction of inherently unpredictable phenomena. The laws of thermodynamics provide an example. The path of each molecule in a gas is modeled as a random walk. Yet the properties of the overall gas, made up of many chaotically interacting particles, is predictable to a high degree of precision. Technology evolution is, similarly, a chaotic system with remarkably predictable properties." - Raymond Kurzweil

Also, stop asking me how much longer you'll have to wait.
There's some win scattered throughout this post.

Anyway, that's all fine and good (not really, it was actually an epic waste of time, but there's plenty of time to waste so who cares,) but, you're basing your assumptions off of very few data points that are likely circumstantially different. For instance, Starcraft was a game that required quite a lot of balance, as a RTS. That requires a lot of testing, which means that it would likely take longer to complete than a game like Diablo 3 would. Diablo 3, while it would also require balance, would not require as fine-tuned of a balance as Starcraft 2. World of Warcraft, on the other hand, is an MMORPG, which was uncharted territory for Blizzard, and one would expect that it would take them significantly longer to complete it.

Next, it would depend on what stage of the development cycle the games were at when they were announced. As far as I can determine, the announcement date and the release date would be almost completely unrelated. It isn't as if Blizzard says "We're going to be ready to release Diablo 3 in X amount of days, time to announce it!" For all we know, they've been working on it for years, and the evidence hints at that being the case. Look at the Alpha starcraft compared to the release starcraft. It's completely different. On the other hand, Diablo 3 looks pretty damn polished. Both Diablo 3 and Starcraft 2 were playable at Blizzcon 2008.

There are also other factors to consider, such as the size of the development teams, resources of the company, etc. Blizzard today is not the same as Blizzard in the 90s. They've got incredibly more capital to work with, and most likely a lot more people working for them.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 04:59 PM in reply to Kazilla's post starting "diii.net i think"
Kazilla said: [Goto]
diii.net i think
diii.net is a fan Diablo 3 website. diablo3.com is the diablo 3 official website.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 05:08 PM in reply to !King_Amazon!'s post starting "There's some win scattered throughout..."
Yep. You said everything I wanted to. 2014 is -way- too far out, however, the 2010 and 2011 estimates might be more on the money. However, they have so much capital they could essentially have this game pumped out QUICKER than some of the other ones.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 06:15 PM in reply to Willkillforfood's post starting "Yep. You said everything I wanted to. ..."
I want it to come out before I graduate so that I can get over my addiction before I go off.
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Posted 2008-10-24, 06:21 PM in reply to Chruser's post starting "I made a few estimates based on..."
Chruser said: [Goto]
ENJOY THE WAIT!

What about leap years
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Posted 2008-10-24, 07:16 PM in reply to Grav's post starting "What about leap years"
O god.......... nice obama quote by the way!
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Posted 2008-10-24, 07:20 PM in reply to Asamin's post starting "O god.......... nice obama quote by the..."
LOL @ your Avatar Grav.
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