Chruser started this as a poll test and deleted it, but because I think it's interesting I'm recreating it. After a month it will automatically move itself from Opinion and Debate (where I think it will see more activity) to The Singularity (where it belongs).

So, the question is: is [technological] singularity near?

For those not in the know, technological singularity is the point in time where human minds will be surpassed by computers, and they will become the source of great inventions. More can be found here.

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I don't think it is.

A computer passing the Turing Test will be the first indication that we're on the road to said singularity, and unless someone somewhere is making headway with it, I don't expect it to happen for a number of years yet. Once you've got the one, though, the programming can be adapted and copied and used in other programs, eventually bringing the majoirty of the worlds machines to a level near to that of a human. From there, it's a simple case of programming some sort of autonomy and free thinking, ratcheting up the level of intelligence, and leaving a select group of these machines in a cold room with several instances of notepad open.