Polls tend to be historically accurate, it would seem. www.electoral-vote.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com are both websites I check out. They use trusted polls to compute a "projected" election day, basically. I believe electoral-vote.com had all but like 1 or 2 states right last election. Also, polls for the preliminaries seemed to pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as accuracy is concerned.

Either way, polls would have to have a margin of error of like 20% for it to even be possible for things NOT to be in Obama's favor right now.