One thing I learned from living in hurricane alley for most of my life is that they can rarely make a correct prediction about where a hurricane is going to go. It can change so easily and so quickly, so you really can't trust what they say.

If it DOES continue on it's projected path, though, the bulk of the hurricane will hit the Yucutan peninsula (I think that's what it's called, doubt it's how it's spelled,) which will severely weaken it, so the rest of mexico will probably just get the remnants.

However, if it shifts to the north even a little bit, it could hit the gulf, turn into a cat 5, and own texas/louisiana/whatever. Hell, it could even curve back around and hit florida after that. I've seen hurricanes do loops, stop on top of places (I remember one that sat on top of North Carolina for like 2 days, didn't move at all,) all kinds of shit.

Once thing I can say for sure, though, is it's going to do some pretty serious damage SOMEWHERE, because it's already a cat 4.