Truthfully, I'm not sure why there's much of an issue here, if these figures are in fact correct:

=Bush led by about 136,000 votes
=As many as 175,000 provisional ballots
=In 2000, when 100,000 provisional ballots were cast, about 90 percent were legitimate

Based on that, assuming the 90% figure holds again this time around, there are about 157,500 valid provisional ballots. Since Kerry would have to beat about 136,000, that would mean Kerry needs 146,750 of those for himself - 93%.

I really doubt Kerry can get 93% of the provisional ballots. Of course, there's apparently still overseas ballots that can be counted - but since military ballots are usually mainly Republican, those would only increase Bush's lead, really.