Number Crunching Yesterday
 

Just some stuff I did yesterday in case anyone is interested.

Just for fun, I decided to do a bit of election theorycrafting on my own, based on trusted polls, in an attempt to determine whether Obama really will win tomorrow, based solely on the numbers.

If you assume that each candidate will win the states that they lead by 10 or more points in polls, Obama gets 238 EVs, while McCain gets 118 EVs, with 182 toss-up EVs. If you assume that each candidate will win states that they lead by 8 or more points in polls, Obama gets 264 EVs, while McCain gets 132 EVs, with 142 toss-up EVs.

In the second scenario, those 142 toss-up EVs are from 12 states. 6 of those favor McCain, and 6 of those favor Obama. The ones that favor McCain are below:

Edited by !King_Amazon!

Just so you know, this data was all taken from www.electoral-vote.com so this data is based on the polls that they use, which you can find by visiting their website. They only use trusted, reliable polls, so this isn't just data that was pulled out of some Obama lover's ass.

Now, the ones that favor Obama:





270 EVs is a win, and with the assumption that the candidates will both win all states that they are more than 8 points ahead in, Obama only needs 6 more to win, while McCain needs 138 more. All of the states listed above add up to 142 EVs. That means, basically, that McCain would pretty much have to win all of the states above to win, including the ones that Obama has a decent lead in (such as Colorado, with his 7 point lead). If Obama manages to at LEAST get the state with his best lead, Colorado, he wins, no matter how many of the rest McCain wins.

Pretty much, throw a dart at a dart board, if you hit the dart board, the wall, the ceiling, or the floor, Obama wins. If you hit a platypus or the moon, McCain wins.

If you are an Obama supporter, you should never just assume he is going to win. That assumption spreads around the entire nation, and people will become less likely to vote.

I still plan on voting. I don't see the logic behind not voting because I think he'll win anyway. If someone will decide not to vote because it looks like he'll win, they deserve a McCain presidency anyway.

Yes, but ignorance is bliss and abundant in America, and that way of thinking i'm sure of, applies to plenty of younger voters discouraged by 2-hour lines just to "vote".

7:00 pm is almost here!

Those voters need to DIAF then. Assholes.

I wanted to vote this election, it was the first I was actually kind of into. Found out yesterday I wasnt registered where as I thought I was, so I won't be voting this year, Tutti is though.. I'ma hear about the lines when she finally gets home watch.

You could still go vote, go now. Get a provisional ballot, and vote. They will figure out your registration status afterwards, or atleast they should've told you where or what precinct to go to. You still have a few hours to go vote, go do it.

THIS.

go now